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Current and Near-Term AI as a Potential Existential Risk Factor

Authors:

Benjamin S. Bucknall,

Shiri Dori-HacohenAuthors Info & Claims

AIES '22: Proceedings of the 2022 AAAI/ACM Conference on AI, Ethics, and Society

Pages 119 - 129

https://doi.org/10.1145/3514094.3534146

Published: 27 July 2022 Publication History

Abstract

There is a substantial and ever-growing corpus of evidence and literature exploring the impacts of Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies on society, politics, and humanity as a whole. A separate, parallel body of work has explored existential risks to humanity, including but not limited to that stemming from unaligned Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). In this paper, we problematise the notion that current and near-term artificial intelligence technologies have the potential to contribute to existential risk by acting as intermediate risk factors, and that this potential is not limited to the unaligned AGI scenario. We propose the hypothesis that certain already-documented effects of AI can act as existential risk factors, magnifying the likelihood of previously identified sources of existential risk. Moreover, future developments in the coming decade hold the potential to significantly exacerbate these risk factors, even in the absence of artificial general intelligence. Our main contribution is a (non-exhaustive) exposition of potential AI risk factors and the causal relationships between them, focusing on how AI can affect power dynamics and information security. This exposition demonstrates that there exist causal pathways from AI systems to existential risks that do not presuppose hypothetical future AI capabilities.

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cover image ACM Conferences

AIES '22: Proceedings of the 2022 AAAI/ACM Conference on AI, Ethics, and Society

July 2022

939 pages

ISBN:9781450392471

DOI:10.1145/3514094

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Vincent Conitzer
Duke University & University of Oxford
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John Tasioulas
University of Oxford
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Matthias Scheutz
Tufts University
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Ryan Calo
University of Washington
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Martina Mara
Johannes Kepler University Linz
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Annette Zimmermann
University of York

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